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MPC vs TPL · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do MPC and TPL differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

MPCTPLBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceMPCMarathon PetroleumTPLTexas Pacific Land Corporation
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.31%−1.5% to +0.92%Not distinguishable from zero+0.33%−2.2% to +2.8%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+1.9%−1.6% to +5.4%Not distinguishable from zero+0.55%−6.4% to +7.5%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+0.87%−0.68% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero+1.3%−1.5% to +4.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+3.9%+3.0% to +4.7%Clear+3.2%+1.1% to +5.3%Tentative
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+0.46%−2.6% to +3.5%Not distinguishable from zero+2.5%−2.3% to +7.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+0.49%−1.5% to +2.5%Not distinguishable from zero+0.85%−4.0% to +5.7%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−1.7%−2.8% to −0.52%Tentative−0.56%−2.7% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.77%−0.71% to +2.2%Not distinguishable from zero+0.32%−2.5% to +3.2%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.94%−2.0% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero+1.8%−0.16% to +3.8%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.29%−0.39% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.59%−0.38% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.01%−0.03% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero+0.03%−0.01% to +0.07%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.57%−1.5% to +0.38%Not distinguishable from zero−0.63%−2.0% to +0.71%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.58%+0.24% to +0.93%Tentative+0.91%+0.23% to +1.6%Tentative
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+1.0%+0.65% to +1.3%Clear+1.2%+0.58% to +1.9%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.08%−0.48% to +0.33%Not distinguishable from zero+0.04%−0.49% to +0.57%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−2.8%−5.1% to −0.52%Tentative−4.6%−9.7% to +0.43%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.21%−1.2% to +0.82%Not distinguishable from zero−0.35%−2.2% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.07%−0.51% to +0.36%Not distinguishable from zero+0.16%−0.58% to +0.90%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.04%−0.18% to +0.27%Not distinguishable from zero−0.06%−0.36% to +0.24%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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