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MOS vs ADM · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do MOS and ADM differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

MOSADMBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceMOSMosaic Company (The)ADMArcher Daniels Midland
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.14%−1.8% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero−0.72%−2.2% to +0.80%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+2.8%−1.8% to +7.4%Not distinguishable from zero+4.0%+0.11% to +7.8%Tentative
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−4.1%−6.6% to −1.7%Clear−2.0%−3.5% to −0.44%Tentative
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+1.3%+0.10% to +2.4%Tentative+1.1%−0.27% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−2.6%−7.0% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero−1.5%−4.3% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+1.1%−1.7% to +4.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.55%−2.9% to +3.9%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−2.1%−3.4% to −0.74%Tentative−0.51%−1.7% to +0.64%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.61%−1.0% to +2.2%Not distinguishable from zero−0.55%−2.2% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+2.8%+1.2% to +4.5%Tentative+0.83%−0.38% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.72%−0.60% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero−0.12%−1.0% to +0.77%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.05%−0.04% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero+0.02%0.00% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+1.0%−0.11% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero−0.55%−1.1% to −0.03%Tentative
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.81%+0.43% to +1.2%Clear+0.21%−0.20% to +0.63%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.93%+0.59% to +1.3%Clear+0.66%+0.40% to +0.93%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.10%−0.61% to +0.42%Not distinguishable from zero−0.35%−0.76% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−2.5%−5.7% to +0.79%Not distinguishable from zero+1.3%−0.87% to +3.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.24%−1.3% to +0.84%Not distinguishable from zero−0.56%−1.5% to +0.43%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point+0.57%+0.11% to +1.0%Tentative−0.07%−0.45% to +0.31%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.03%−0.22% to +0.28%Not distinguishable from zero−0.17%−0.39% to +0.05%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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