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MCK vs AON · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do MCK and AON differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

MCKAONBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceMCKAONAon plc
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.48%−1.6% to +0.62%Not distinguishable from zero−0.64%−1.8% to +0.55%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points−1.5%−3.8% to +0.82%Not distinguishable from zero+0.27%−2.5% to +3.0%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+2.8%+1.3% to +4.4%Clear+1.5%+0.49% to +2.6%Tentative
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.35%−0.64% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−0.34%−1.1% to +0.43%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+3.6%+1.0% to +6.3%Tentative+0.77%−1.6% to +3.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+0.94%−0.77% to +2.6%Not distinguishable from zero+1.1%−1.1% to +3.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.46%−1.6% to +0.64%Not distinguishable from zero−0.01%−0.75% to +0.72%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.76%−0.91% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero−0.10%−1.3% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.38%−0.40% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero−0.17%−1.0% to +0.68%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.26%−0.41% to +0.94%Not distinguishable from zero+0.19%−0.45% to +0.83%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.02%−0.04% to −0.01%Tentative+0.01%−0.02% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.36%−1.3% to +0.55%Not distinguishable from zero−0.47%−1.0% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.18%−0.17% to +0.54%Not distinguishable from zero+0.03%−0.26% to +0.31%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.61%+0.31% to +0.91%Clear+0.49%+0.18% to +0.81%Tentative
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.56%−0.88% to −0.24%Tentative−0.63%−0.94% to −0.32%Clear
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.56%−1.8% to +2.9%Not distinguishable from zero+0.87%−1.1% to +2.8%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.70%−1.7% to +0.30%Not distinguishable from zero+0.24%−0.77% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.44%−0.81% to −0.07%Tentative−0.67%−1.0% to −0.37%Clear
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.11%−0.13% to +0.35%Not distinguishable from zero+0.29%+0.09% to +0.49%Tentative
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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