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MAR vs TDG · data through Oct 2, 2026

MAR and TDG clearly differ on 1 of 19 forces. The widest gap is small vs large companies: in weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point, MAR typically moved +0.33% and TDG −0.16%.

MARTDGBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceMARMarriott InternationalTDGTransDigm Group
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.48%−1.2% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero−0.28%−1.1% to +0.59%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+2.3%−0.23% to +4.8%Not distinguishable from zero+0.57%−2.4% to +3.6%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+1.4%+0.19% to +2.6%Tentative+0.77%−0.53% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−1.1%−1.8% to −0.47%Clear−0.93%−1.8% to −0.07%Tentative
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−1.9%−3.8% to −0.10%Tentative−1.3%−4.0% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+0.48%−1.1% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero−0.25%−2.4% to +1.9%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.13%−1.0% to +0.72%Not distinguishable from zero−0.03%−1.2% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.17%−1.0% to +0.67%Not distinguishable from zero−0.68%−2.2% to +0.81%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.66%−1.3% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero−0.57%−1.4% to +0.27%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.12%−0.63% to +0.88%Not distinguishable from zero+0.12%−0.33% to +0.56%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.02%−0.04% to 0.00%Tentative+0.01%−0.03% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.51%−1.0% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero−0.44%−1.3% to +0.40%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage pointClear difference+0.33%+0.17% to +0.50%Clear−0.16%−0.42% to +0.10%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.44%+0.18% to +0.70%Tentative0.00%−0.30% to +0.30%Not distinguishable from zero
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point+0.28%+0.05% to +0.51%Tentative+0.35%+0.11% to +0.59%Tentative
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.62%−2.4% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero−0.14%−1.9% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.35%−1.1% to +0.44%Not distinguishable from zero−0.45%−1.2% to +0.34%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.01%−0.25% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero+0.05%−0.21% to +0.31%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.05%−0.10% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero−0.04%−0.16% to +0.09%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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