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MAR vs AME · data through Oct 2, 2026

MAR and AME clearly differ on 1 of 19 forces. The widest gap is natural gas: in weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%, MAR typically moved −0.02% and AME +0.02%.

MARAMEBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceMARMarriott InternationalAMEAmetek
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.48%−1.2% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero+0.05%−0.61% to +0.71%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+2.3%−0.23% to +4.8%Not distinguishable from zero+1.8%−1.0% to +4.7%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+1.4%+0.19% to +2.6%Tentative+0.46%−0.56% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−1.1%−1.8% to −0.47%Clear−0.91%−1.6% to −0.27%Tentative
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−1.9%−3.8% to −0.10%Tentative−1.4%−3.6% to +0.68%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+0.48%−1.1% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero+1.2%−0.24% to +2.6%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.13%−1.0% to +0.72%Not distinguishable from zero−0.34%−1.0% to +0.31%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.17%−1.0% to +0.67%Not distinguishable from zero−0.45%−1.3% to +0.41%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.66%−1.3% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero−0.11%−0.71% to +0.50%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.12%−0.63% to +0.88%Not distinguishable from zero−0.61%−1.1% to −0.15%Tentative
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%Clear difference−0.02%−0.04% to 0.00%Tentative+0.02%0.00% to +0.04%Tentative
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.51%−1.0% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero−0.24%−0.83% to +0.35%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.33%+0.17% to +0.50%Clear+0.30%+0.10% to +0.50%Tentative
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.44%+0.18% to +0.70%Tentative+0.32%+0.16% to +0.48%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point+0.28%+0.05% to +0.51%Tentative+0.30%+0.08% to +0.53%Tentative
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.62%−2.4% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero−1.6%−2.8% to −0.29%Tentative
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.35%−1.1% to +0.44%Not distinguishable from zero−0.34%−1.0% to +0.26%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.01%−0.25% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero+0.09%−0.08% to +0.26%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.05%−0.10% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero−0.16%−0.28% to −0.04%Tentative
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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