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LHX vs ES · data through Oct 2, 2026

LHX and ES clearly differ on 2 of 19 forces. The widest gap is euro: in weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar, LHX typically moved +1.8% and ES −2.7%.

LHXESBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceLHXL3HarrisESEversource Energy
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.51%−2.4% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero−1.7%−2.6% to −0.73%Clear
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points−1.0%−4.7% to +2.7%Not distinguishable from zero−1.5%−4.2% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−1.3%−2.9% to +0.40%Not distinguishable from zero−1.0%−2.5% to +0.38%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.94%+0.37% to +1.5%Clear+0.76%+0.13% to +1.4%Tentative
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−1.1%−3.5% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−1.2%−3.4% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.16%−1.8% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero+0.37%−1.6% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 pointsClear difference+0.76%0.00% to +1.5%Tentative−1.0%−1.8% to −0.13%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.02%−1.0% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.43%−0.44% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+1.1%+0.29% to +2.0%Tentative+0.66%−0.32% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.39%−0.89% to +0.10%Not distinguishable from zero+0.65%+0.05% to +1.2%Tentative
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.02%0.00% to +0.03%Tentative−0.04%−0.09% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.65%−1.2% to −0.08%Tentative+0.53%−0.20% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.28%+0.01% to +0.56%Tentative+0.56%+0.33% to +0.79%Clear
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.48%+0.27% to +0.69%Clear+0.78%+0.54% to +1.0%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.19%−0.62% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero−0.41%−0.74% to −0.07%Tentative
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollarClear difference+1.8%−0.64% to +4.2%Not distinguishable from zero−2.7%−4.4% to −0.93%Tentative
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.53%−1.4% to +0.31%Not distinguishable from zero+0.59%−0.15% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.17%−0.48% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero+0.14%−0.22% to +0.50%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point0.00%−0.19% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero+0.11%−0.02% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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