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J vs MS · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do J and MS differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

JMSBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceJJacobs SolutionsMSMorgan Stanley
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.86%−1.8% to +0.10%Not distinguishable from zero−0.93%−2.2% to +0.29%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+2.6%+0.65% to +4.6%Tentative+2.1%−0.52% to +4.7%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−0.08%−1.5% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero+0.48%−1.4% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.19%−0.85% to +0.47%Not distinguishable from zero−0.35%−1.0% to +0.33%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−2.7%−5.1% to −0.35%Tentative−2.7%−4.8% to −0.57%Tentative
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.3%−3.3% to +0.61%Not distinguishable from zero+0.18%−1.2% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.39%−1.2% to +0.44%Not distinguishable from zero−1.1%−1.9% to −0.31%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.59%−0.35% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero+0.82%−0.40% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.08%−0.94% to +0.79%Not distinguishable from zero−0.89%−1.6% to −0.13%Tentative
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.33%−0.89% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero−0.14%−0.67% to +0.39%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%0.00%−0.03% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero−0.06%−0.09% to −0.02%Tentative
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+0.05%−0.77% to +0.88%Not distinguishable from zero−0.02%−0.76% to +0.71%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.44%+0.20% to +0.68%Clear+0.61%+0.42% to +0.80%Clear
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.43%+0.15% to +0.71%Tentative+0.76%+0.50% to +1.0%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.36%−0.70% to −0.02%Tentative+0.11%−0.18% to +0.40%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.58%−2.2% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero−1.2%−3.4% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.23%−1.4% to +0.95%Not distinguishable from zero0.00%−0.55% to +0.56%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.01%−0.40% to +0.37%Not distinguishable from zero+0.06%−0.17% to +0.29%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.28%+0.12% to +0.44%Tentative+0.06%−0.06% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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