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ICE vs KR · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do ICE and KR differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

ICEKRBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceICEIntercontinental ExchangeKRKroger
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.5%−2.5% to −0.55%Tentative−1.1%−2.2% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+3.1%+1.0% to +5.2%Tentative+3.2%+0.55% to +5.9%Tentative
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−1.3%−2.4% to −0.15%Tentative−1.1%−2.6% to +0.48%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+1.0%+0.31% to +1.6%Tentative+0.56%−0.35% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+0.46%−1.5% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero+1.5%−0.53% to +3.6%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+0.17%−1.3% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero+1.0%−0.74% to +2.7%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.84%−1.5% to −0.15%Tentative−0.44%−1.4% to +0.46%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.88%−1.6% to −0.12%Tentative+0.13%−0.76% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.36%−0.28% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.93%+0.17% to +1.7%Tentative
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.02%−0.53% to +0.49%Not distinguishable from zero+0.24%−0.20% to +0.67%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.01%−0.02% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero0.00%−0.02% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+0.10%−0.41% to +0.62%Not distinguishable from zero+0.27%−0.34% to +0.88%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point−0.03%−0.29% to +0.24%Not distinguishable from zero+0.07%−0.16% to +0.30%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.37%+0.17% to +0.56%Clear+0.26%−0.01% to +0.52%Not distinguishable from zero
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.22%−0.49% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero−0.27%−0.53% to −0.01%Tentative
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.31%−2.1% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero−1.4%−3.4% to +0.67%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.26%−1.0% to +0.47%Not distinguishable from zero+0.40%−0.32% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.18%−0.36% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero−0.30%−0.61% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.22%+0.09% to +0.34%Tentative+0.18%−0.01% to +0.38%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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