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HLT vs MAR · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do HLT and MAR differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

HLTMARBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceHLTHilton WorldwideMARMarriott International
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.71%−1.3% to −0.11%Tentative−0.48%−1.2% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+1.6%+0.06% to +3.1%Tentative+2.3%−0.23% to +4.8%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+1.6%+0.61% to +2.5%Clear+1.4%+0.19% to +2.6%Tentative
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.91%−1.4% to −0.40%Clear−1.1%−1.8% to −0.47%Clear
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−0.51%−2.3% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−1.9%−3.8% to −0.10%Tentative
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+0.40%−1.0% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero+0.48%−1.1% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.02%−0.71% to +0.68%Not distinguishable from zero−0.13%−1.0% to +0.72%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.60%−1.4% to +0.17%Not distinguishable from zero−0.17%−1.0% to +0.67%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.50%−1.1% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero−0.66%−1.3% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.05%−0.53% to +0.63%Not distinguishable from zero+0.12%−0.63% to +0.88%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.01%−0.03% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero−0.02%−0.04% to 0.00%Tentative
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.31%−0.79% to +0.17%Not distinguishable from zero−0.51%−1.0% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.27%+0.12% to +0.43%Tentative+0.33%+0.17% to +0.50%Clear
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.37%+0.18% to +0.55%Clear+0.44%+0.18% to +0.70%Tentative
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point+0.20%−0.01% to +0.41%Not distinguishable from zero+0.28%+0.05% to +0.51%Tentative
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−1.3%−2.8% to +0.32%Not distinguishable from zero−0.62%−2.4% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.89%−1.6% to −0.20%Tentative−0.35%−1.1% to +0.44%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point+0.04%−0.18% to +0.26%Not distinguishable from zero−0.01%−0.25% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.07%−0.04% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero+0.05%−0.10% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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