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GS vs BAC · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do GS and BAC differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

Economic forceGSGoldman SachsBACBank of America
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.9%−2.7% to −1.0%Clear−1.9%−3.1% to −0.74%Clear
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+4.1%+1.8% to +6.4%Clear+5.9%+3.0% to +8.8%Clear
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+0.18%−1.4% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero+0.17%−1.5% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.17%−0.84% to +0.50%Not distinguishable from zero−0.12%−0.83% to +0.59%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−2.9%−5.4% to −0.35%Tentative−2.6%−5.3% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+0.68%−0.86% to +2.2%Not distinguishable from zero−0.05%−1.9% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−1.1%−1.8% to −0.37%Tentative−1.4%−2.3% to −0.60%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.53%−0.88% to +1.9%Not distinguishable from zero+0.68%−0.35% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−1.4%−2.0% to −0.88%Clear−1.1%−1.8% to −0.34%Tentative
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.34%−0.87% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero−0.06%−0.68% to +0.56%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.05%−0.09% to −0.02%Tentative−0.05%−0.11% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.01%−0.66% to +0.64%Not distinguishable from zero−0.89%−1.8% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.53%+0.36% to +0.70%Clear+0.69%+0.45% to +0.93%Clear
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.67%+0.47% to +0.87%Clear+1.0%+0.71% to +1.2%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point+0.20%−0.07% to +0.46%Not distinguishable from zero−0.12%−0.44% to +0.21%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.73%−2.8% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−1.9%−3.9% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.03%−0.70% to +0.65%Not distinguishable from zero−0.47%−1.1% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.07%−0.31% to +0.17%Not distinguishable from zero−0.25%−0.47% to −0.03%Tentative
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point−0.01%−0.14% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero0.00%−0.14% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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