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GOOGL vs MSFT · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do GOOGL and MSFT differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

Economic forceGOOGLAlphabet Inc. (Class A)MSFTMicrosoft
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+1.9%+0.59% to +3.3%Tentative+1.4%+0.54% to +2.2%Clear
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+0.17%−2.9% to +3.2%Not distinguishable from zero−1.9%−4.4% to +0.66%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−1.1%−2.6% to +0.37%Not distinguishable from zero−0.22%−1.6% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.26%−1.0% to +0.51%Not distinguishable from zero−0.11%−1.1% to +0.89%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+1.1%−1.6% to +3.7%Not distinguishable from zero+2.8%+0.36% to +5.2%Tentative
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.4%−4.0% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero−0.68%−2.6% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points+1.2%+0.11% to +2.2%Tentative+1.3%+0.36% to +2.2%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.81%−2.0% to +0.40%Not distinguishable from zero−0.54%−1.7% to +0.59%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.60%−1.5% to +0.27%Not distinguishable from zero+0.19%−0.54% to +0.91%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.40%−1.1% to +0.26%Not distinguishable from zero−0.51%−1.0% to −0.03%Tentative
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%0.00%−0.03% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero+0.04%+0.02% to +0.07%Tentative
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.59%−1.4% to +0.25%Not distinguishable from zero+0.49%−0.22% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point−0.53%−0.81% to −0.25%Clear−0.66%−0.88% to −0.43%Clear
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point−0.63%−0.85% to −0.40%Clear−0.80%−1.1% to −0.53%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.56%−0.87% to −0.24%Tentative−0.51%−1.1% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+3.7%+1.7% to +5.7%Clear+1.0%−0.76% to +2.8%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.16%−1.2% to +0.90%Not distinguishable from zero+0.27%−0.93% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point+0.02%−0.18% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero−0.44%−0.72% to −0.17%Tentative
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.16%0.00% to +0.32%Tentative+0.09%−0.15% to +0.33%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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