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FICO vs MCO · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do FICO and MCO differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

FICOMCOBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceFICOFair IsaacMCOMoody's Corporation
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−2.6%−5.5% to +0.38%Not distinguishable from zero−1.7%−2.9% to −0.56%Tentative
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+0.41%−5.2% to +6.0%Not distinguishable from zero+1.0%−1.3% to +3.4%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+0.89%−2.4% to +4.2%Not distinguishable from zero+0.62%−0.46% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.33%−1.6% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero−0.34%−0.88% to +0.20%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−2.9%−8.8% to +3.0%Not distinguishable from zero−1.6%−3.7% to +0.45%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.45%−3.9% to +3.0%Not distinguishable from zero−0.82%−2.4% to +0.73%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points+0.91%−1.3% to +3.1%Not distinguishable from zero−0.33%−1.1% to +0.43%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−2.5%−5.6% to +0.64%Not distinguishable from zero−1.1%−1.9% to −0.22%Tentative
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.67%−0.70% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero−0.16%−0.92% to +0.60%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.28%−1.8% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−0.03%−0.49% to +0.44%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.03%−0.03% to +0.09%Not distinguishable from zero−0.01%−0.03% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.09%−1.5% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero+0.17%−0.64% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.23%−0.22% to +0.69%Not distinguishable from zero−0.05%−0.27% to +0.17%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.35%−0.20% to +0.90%Not distinguishable from zero+0.30%0.00% to +0.60%Tentative
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.64%−1.4% to +0.15%Not distinguishable from zero−0.48%−0.81% to −0.15%Tentative
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+3.3%−0.60% to +7.3%Not distinguishable from zero+1.6%−0.64% to +3.8%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.10%−1.8% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero0.00%−0.83% to +0.84%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−1.0%−1.6% to −0.39%Tentative−0.64%−0.87% to −0.41%Clear
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point−0.02%−0.33% to +0.28%Not distinguishable from zero+0.09%−0.13% to +0.30%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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