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FE vs ED · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do FE and ED differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

FEEDBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceFEFirstEnergyEDConsolidated Edison
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.0%−2.1% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero−1.4%−2.4% to −0.37%Tentative
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points−1.2%−3.3% to +0.90%Not distinguishable from zero−1.0%−2.7% to +0.71%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−0.66%−1.9% to +0.60%Not distinguishable from zero−0.31%−1.3% to +0.70%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.41%−0.10% to +0.92%Not distinguishable from zero+0.55%+0.09% to +1.0%Tentative
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+0.64%−1.1% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero+1.2%−0.42% to +2.8%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+0.03%−1.3% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero+0.82%−0.37% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−1.1%−1.7% to −0.47%Tentative−1.0%−1.6% to −0.44%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.73%−0.14% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero+0.22%−0.48% to +0.93%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.70%−0.05% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero+0.72%+0.09% to +1.4%Tentative
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.01%−0.43% to +0.46%Not distinguishable from zero+0.19%−0.21% to +0.59%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.02%−0.04% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero−0.01%−0.03% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.19%−0.64% to +0.26%Not distinguishable from zero−0.19%−0.58% to +0.21%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.26%+0.08% to +0.44%Tentative+0.19%+0.03% to +0.35%Tentative
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.45%+0.28% to +0.63%Clear+0.63%+0.50% to +0.77%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.09%−0.29% to +0.11%Not distinguishable from zero−0.15%−0.33% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−2.7%−4.4% to −1.0%Tentative−1.3%−2.7% to +0.12%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.11%−0.56% to +0.77%Not distinguishable from zero+0.26%−0.33% to +0.84%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point+0.03%−0.19% to +0.26%Not distinguishable from zero−0.08%−0.28% to +0.12%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.04%−0.05% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero+0.05%−0.05% to +0.15%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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