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FDS vs SPGI · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do FDS and SPGI differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

FDSSPGIBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceFDSFactSetSPGIS&P Global
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−2.1%−3.7% to −0.51%Tentative−2.2%−3.3% to −1.1%Clear
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+2.0%−1.3% to +5.2%Not distinguishable from zero+2.6%+0.58% to +4.6%Tentative
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+0.20%−1.3% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero+0.32%−0.63% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.21%−1.3% to +0.88%Not distinguishable from zero−0.04%−0.69% to +0.61%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−2.1%−5.5% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−1.4%−3.3% to +0.46%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.33%−2.4% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero−0.91%−2.5% to +0.65%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.58%−1.8% to +0.65%Not distinguishable from zero−0.05%−0.73% to +0.64%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.60%−0.86% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero−0.91%−1.7% to −0.14%Tentative
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.91%−0.08% to +1.9%Not distinguishable from zero−0.35%−1.1% to +0.39%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.63%−0.04% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−0.37%−0.89% to +0.14%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.02%−0.01% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero−0.01%−0.03% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+0.62%−0.76% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.23%−0.78% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point−0.17%−0.47% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero−0.10%−0.44% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.11%−0.35% to +0.56%Not distinguishable from zero+0.18%−0.19% to +0.55%Not distinguishable from zero
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.81%−1.2% to −0.40%Clear−0.56%−1.0% to −0.13%Tentative
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.49%−1.9% to +2.9%Not distinguishable from zero+0.25%−1.7% to +2.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.40%−1.6% to +0.80%Not distinguishable from zero−0.18%−1.1% to +0.74%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.76%−1.2% to −0.36%Clear−0.64%−1.0% to −0.31%Clear
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.28%+0.02% to +0.54%Tentative+0.16%−0.02% to +0.35%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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Every figure on these pages is one stock at a time. The app measures a whole portfolio: which forces it is exposed to, which holdings cause it, and how sure the reading is. Free, no account for the first report.