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FAST vs BLK · data through Oct 2, 2026

FAST and BLK clearly differ on 2 of 19 forces. The widest gap is short-term rates: in weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points, FAST typically moved +0.92% and BLK −2.3%.

FASTBLKBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceFASTFastenalBLKBlackRock
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.70%−2.2% to +0.76%Not distinguishable from zero−0.81%−1.9% to +0.30%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+3.4%+0.32% to +6.6%Tentative+2.6%+0.67% to +4.5%Tentative
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−0.76%−2.3% to +0.81%Not distinguishable from zero−1.1%−2.2% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.48%−1.2% to +0.24%Not distinguishable from zero−0.80%−1.6% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−0.75%−3.1% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero−0.81%−2.7% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage pointsClear difference+0.92%−0.79% to +2.6%Not distinguishable from zero−2.3%−3.7% to −0.80%Tentative
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points+0.70%−0.37% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero−0.59%−1.3% to +0.07%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.56%−0.56% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero−0.01%−0.84% to +0.81%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.11%−0.87% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero−0.56%−1.2% to +0.14%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.40%−1.0% to +0.20%Not distinguishable from zero−0.37%−0.90% to +0.16%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%0.00%−0.02% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero−0.03%−0.04% to −0.02%Clear
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.28%−1.1% to +0.50%Not distinguishable from zero+0.30%−0.30% to +0.90%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.34%+0.07% to +0.61%Tentative+0.28%+0.09% to +0.47%Tentative
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.52%+0.23% to +0.81%Tentative+0.46%+0.23% to +0.69%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.03%−0.31% to +0.24%Not distinguishable from zero−0.19%−0.49% to +0.11%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+1.9%−0.79% to +4.6%Not distinguishable from zero+1.3%−0.21% to +2.8%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.69%−0.12% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero+0.29%−0.44% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage pointClear difference−0.45%−0.70% to −0.20%Tentative+0.02%−0.17% to +0.22%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point−0.05%−0.21% to +0.11%Not distinguishable from zero+0.09%−0.02% to +0.20%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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