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ES vs EVRG · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do ES and EVRG differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

ESEVRGBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceESEversource EnergyEVRGEvergy
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.7%−2.6% to −0.73%Clear−1.9%−2.8% to −1.0%Clear
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points−1.5%−4.2% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero−1.2%−3.3% to +0.82%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−1.0%−2.5% to +0.38%Not distinguishable from zero−0.48%−1.7% to +0.74%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.76%+0.13% to +1.4%Tentative+0.41%−0.06% to +0.89%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−1.2%−3.4% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.13%−1.9% to +2.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+0.37%−1.6% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero+0.10%−1.1% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−1.0%−1.8% to −0.13%Tentative−0.80%−1.5% to −0.07%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.43%−0.44% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero+0.74%0.00% to +1.5%Tentative
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.66%−0.32% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero+0.35%−0.29% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.65%+0.05% to +1.2%Tentative−0.06%−0.52% to +0.39%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.04%−0.09% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero−0.01%−0.03% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+0.53%−0.20% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−0.01%−0.58% to +0.55%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.56%+0.33% to +0.79%Clear+0.35%+0.18% to +0.52%Clear
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.78%+0.54% to +1.0%Clear+0.63%+0.49% to +0.77%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.41%−0.74% to −0.07%Tentative−0.15%−0.41% to +0.12%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−2.7%−4.4% to −0.93%Tentative−2.9%−4.4% to −1.4%Clear
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.59%−0.15% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero+0.29%−0.22% to +0.79%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point+0.14%−0.22% to +0.50%Not distinguishable from zero−0.10%−0.30% to +0.10%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.11%−0.02% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero+0.01%−0.10% to +0.12%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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