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EME vs CME · data through Oct 2, 2026

EME and CME clearly differ on 2 of 19 forces. The widest gap is momentum: in weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point, EME typically moved +1.0% and CME −0.20%.

EMECMEBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceEMEEmcorCMECME Group
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.06%−1.6% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero+0.26%−0.75% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+1.8%−1.9% to +5.5%Not distinguishable from zero+0.22%−2.4% to +2.8%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−0.86%−2.5% to +0.73%Not distinguishable from zero−1.0%−2.4% to +0.34%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.74%−0.16% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero+0.87%−0.08% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+0.81%−3.3% to +4.9%Not distinguishable from zero+0.91%−1.7% to +3.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+0.65%−1.2% to +2.5%Not distinguishable from zero+1.3%−0.25% to +2.8%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.70%−2.0% to +0.63%Not distinguishable from zero−1.1%−1.8% to −0.39%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.87%−0.58% to +2.3%Not distinguishable from zero−0.84%−1.7% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.91%−1.8% to −0.04%Tentative+0.49%−0.05% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.36%−1.0% to +0.31%Not distinguishable from zero+0.17%−0.28% to +0.61%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.01%−0.04% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero0.00%−0.02% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+1.2%−0.08% to +2.5%Not distinguishable from zero−0.01%−0.68% to +0.65%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage pointClear difference+0.51%+0.21% to +0.82%Tentative−0.32%−0.60% to −0.04%Tentative
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.16%−0.13% to +0.46%Not distinguishable from zero+0.23%+0.05% to +0.41%Tentative
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage pointClear difference+1.0%+0.59% to +1.5%Clear−0.20%−0.48% to +0.09%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−1.5%−3.9% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero−1.1%−2.6% to +0.33%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.67%−0.30% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero−0.10%−0.86% to +0.66%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.04%−0.37% to +0.29%Not distinguishable from zero−0.15%−0.39% to +0.10%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point−0.06%−0.26% to +0.15%Not distinguishable from zero+0.21%+0.11% to +0.32%Clear
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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