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EFX vs AES · data through Oct 2, 2026

EFX and AES clearly differ on 3 of 19 forces. The widest gap is euro: in weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar, EFX typically moved +3.0% and AES −6.6%.

Economic forceEFXEquifaxAESAES Corporation
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−3.2%−4.6% to −1.9%Clear−3.4%−5.5% to −1.3%Clear
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+1.3%−1.3% to +3.8%Not distinguishable from zero+2.0%−3.9% to +7.9%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−1.3%−2.9% to +0.25%Not distinguishable from zero−2.4%−5.5% to +0.68%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.26%−0.66% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero+0.26%−1.4% to +1.9%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−2.1%−5.1% to +0.89%Not distinguishable from zero−0.28%−4.1% to +3.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−3.8%−6.2% to −1.5%Tentative−1.0%−3.6% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 pointsClear difference+0.76%−0.42% to +1.9%Not distinguishable from zero−2.8%−4.7% to −1.0%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−1.5%−2.9% to −0.05%Tentative−0.14%−2.3% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.47%−0.51% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero−0.27%−1.4% to +0.87%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.61%−1.3% to +0.12%Not distinguishable from zero+1.0%−0.18% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.04%−0.06% to −0.02%Clear−0.03%−0.07% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.04%−1.0% to +0.93%Not distinguishable from zero−0.15%−1.2% to +0.93%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.32%+0.02% to +0.63%Tentative+0.55%+0.07% to +1.0%Tentative
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.45%+0.10% to +0.80%Tentative+0.92%+0.46% to +1.4%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−1.0%−1.4% to −0.54%Clear−0.31%−0.75% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollarClear difference+3.0%−0.13% to +6.1%Not distinguishable from zero−6.6%−9.4% to −3.7%Clear
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.39%−1.6% to +0.77%Not distinguishable from zero−1.2%−2.6% to +0.12%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage pointClear difference−0.74%−1.1% to −0.33%Clear+0.65%+0.16% to +1.1%Tentative
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.18%−0.09% to +0.45%Not distinguishable from zero+0.15%−0.04% to +0.35%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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