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ED vs CMS · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do ED and CMS differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

Economic forceEDConsolidated EdisonCMSCMS Energy
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.4%−2.4% to −0.36%Tentative−1.7%−2.4% to −0.93%Clear
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points−1.0%−2.7% to +0.71%Not distinguishable from zero−0.69%−2.6% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−0.31%−1.3% to +0.70%Not distinguishable from zero+0.28%−0.70% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.55%+0.08% to +1.0%Tentative+0.13%−0.42% to +0.68%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+1.2%−0.42% to +2.9%Not distinguishable from zero+1.0%−0.51% to +2.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+0.81%−0.38% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.79%−0.49% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−1.0%−1.6% to −0.44%Tentative−1.2%−1.8% to −0.59%Clear
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.23%−0.47% to +0.93%Not distinguishable from zero+0.30%−0.45% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.72%+0.09% to +1.4%Tentative+0.50%−0.08% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.19%−0.21% to +0.58%Not distinguishable from zero+0.24%−0.18% to +0.66%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.01%−0.03% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero−0.02%−0.03% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.19%−0.58% to +0.21%Not distinguishable from zero−0.03%−0.44% to +0.37%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.19%+0.03% to +0.35%Tentative+0.31%+0.11% to +0.50%Tentative
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.63%+0.50% to +0.77%Clear+0.59%+0.45% to +0.74%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.15%−0.33% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero−0.06%−0.29% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−1.3%−2.7% to +0.12%Not distinguishable from zero−2.5%−3.8% to −1.1%Tentative
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.26%−0.33% to +0.85%Not distinguishable from zero−0.18%−0.69% to +0.34%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.08%−0.28% to +0.12%Not distinguishable from zero+0.09%−0.11% to +0.29%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.05%−0.05% to +0.15%Not distinguishable from zero+0.07%−0.03% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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