10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread. Inversion (negative) has preceded every recession since 1955 with a 6–18 month lead time.
Inverted yield curve signals market expects Fed to cut rates as growth slows. Banks earn less on lending (borrow short, lend long) → credit tightening → recession.
| Factor family | Rates |
| Relative weight | Core |
| Update cadence | Daily |
| Modeled lead | ~52 weeks (a modeling assumption, not a validated finding) |
| Data source | FRED |
The lead time above is a design assumption, not an out-of-sample-validated relationship for a specific security or index. This is one Rates input among 47; it measures macro context, not a full investment thesis.
SPY · XLF · IWM · KRE · TLT · TBF · SHY
| Date | Score | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 50/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-05 | 50/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-04 | 45/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-03 | 51/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-02 | 50/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-01 | 48/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-08-30 | 52/100 | ● Neutral |
Unstructured Alpha weighs Yield Curve Spread (10Y–2Y) alongside 46 other macro signals to build a Confluence Score for each stock. See how this signal is currently shaping the macro backdrop for the tickers you follow.
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Scores are derived from macro signals (FRED, EIA, SEC filings, FINRA short interest)
and updated as new data arrives. This is not financial advice. Past signal accuracy
does not guarantee future results.
unstructuredalpha.com · Not financial advice