Ratio of 9-day VIX (^VIX9D) to 30-day VIX (^VIX). Ratio > 1 = VIX term structure in backwardation (near-term fear exceeds medium-term) = panic spike, historically a near-term bottoming signal. Ratio < 1 = contango (normal/calm). A fast-twitch contrarian indicator for timing short-term mean-reversion.
When near-term implied vol exceeds longer-dated vol, options dealers are pricing a short-lived shock. This compression typically unwinds within days. VIX9D/VIX > 1.05 has historically been followed by 1–2 week reversals as the fear event resolves.
| Factor family | Volatility & Positioning |
| Relative weight | Supporting |
| Update cadence | Daily |
| Modeled lead | ~1 weeks (a modeling assumption, not a validated finding) |
| Data source | YFINANCE_RATIO |
The lead time above is a design assumption, not an out-of-sample-validated relationship for a specific security or index. This is one Volatility & Positioning input among 47; it measures macro context, not a full investment thesis.
| Date | Score | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 49/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-05 | 49/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-04 | 49/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-03 | 49/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-02 | 49/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-01 | 49/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-08-31 | 49/100 | ● Neutral |
Unstructured Alpha weighs VIX Term Structure (9D/30D Ratio) alongside 46 other macro signals to build a Confluence Score for each stock. See how this signal is currently shaping the macro backdrop for the tickers you follow.
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Scores are derived from macro signals (FRED, EIA, SEC filings, FINRA short interest)
and updated as new data arrives. This is not financial advice. Past signal accuracy
does not guarantee future results.
unstructuredalpha.com · Not financial advice