Macro & Liquidity Signal
VIX Term Structure (9D/30D Ratio)
Current Status
● Neutral
49/100
Updated 2026-09-06
About This Signal

Ratio of 9-day VIX (^VIX9D) to 30-day VIX (^VIX). Ratio > 1 = VIX term structure in backwardation (near-term fear exceeds medium-term) = panic spike, historically a near-term bottoming signal. Ratio < 1 = contango (normal/calm). A fast-twitch contrarian indicator for timing short-term mean-reversion.

Why the model watches it

When near-term implied vol exceeds longer-dated vol, options dealers are pricing a short-lived shock. This compression typically unwinds within days. VIX9D/VIX > 1.05 has historically been followed by 1–2 week reversals as the fear event resolves.

How the model treats this signal
Factor familyVolatility & Positioning
Relative weightSupporting
Update cadenceDaily
Modeled lead~1 weeks (a modeling assumption, not a validated finding)
Data sourceYFINANCE_RATIO
Known limitations

The lead time above is a design assumption, not an out-of-sample-validated relationship for a specific security or index. This is one Volatility & Positioning input among 47; it measures macro context, not a full investment thesis.

Relevant Tickers

SPY · QQQ · VIXY · UVXY

Recent History (30 days)
DateScoreStatus
2026-09-06 49/100 ● Neutral
2026-09-05 49/100 ● Neutral
2026-09-04 49/100 ● Neutral
2026-09-03 49/100 ● Neutral
2026-09-02 49/100 ● Neutral
2026-09-01 49/100 ● Neutral
2026-08-31 49/100 ● Neutral

Track This Signal in Real Time

Unstructured Alpha weighs VIX Term Structure (9D/30D Ratio) alongside 46 other macro signals to build a Confluence Score for each stock. See how this signal is currently shaping the macro backdrop for the tickers you follow.

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Scores are derived from macro signals (FRED, EIA, SEC filings, FINRA short interest) and updated as new data arrives. This is not financial advice. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results.
unstructuredalpha.com · Not financial advice