Weekly Google Trends search intensity for 'market crash', 'recession', and 'stock market crash' in the US — a real-time retail fear gauge. Used as a CONTRARIAN signal: spikes in fear searches have historically coincided with short-term market bottoms rather than tops, because retail investors tend to search frantically during selling climaxes. Low fear = complacency = mild bearish lean. PCS is deliberately modest — Google Trends can reflect media-driven panic that doesn't correspond to actual price turns, and the series is only 90 days deep per pull, limiting historical validation.
Retail search panic tends to cluster at capitulation moments — when unsophisticated investors are most frightened, institutional buyers are often accumulating. The contrarian read is structural: retail sells into fear, institutions buy. High fear → more supply absorbed → price floor. Note: this is a sentiment-momentum signal, not a fundamental one.
| Factor family | Volatility & Positioning |
| Relative weight | Supporting |
| Update cadence | Weekly |
| Data source | GOOGLE_TRENDS |
The lead time above is a design assumption, not an out-of-sample-validated relationship for a specific security or index. This is one Volatility & Positioning input among 47; it measures macro context, not a full investment thesis.
| Date | Score | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 36/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-05 | 35/100 | ▼ Bearish |
| 2026-09-03 | 59/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-02 | 68/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-08-30 | 22/100 | ▼ Bearish |
| 2026-08-29 | 21/100 | ▼ Bearish |
| 2026-08-25 | 41/100 | ● Neutral |
Unstructured Alpha weighs Retail Fear Index (Google Trends) alongside 46 other macro signals to build a Confluence Score for each stock. See how this signal is currently shaping the macro backdrop for the tickers you follow.
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Scores are derived from macro signals (FRED, EIA, SEC filings, FINRA short interest)
and updated as new data arrives. This is not financial advice. Past signal accuracy
does not guarantee future results.
unstructuredalpha.com · Not financial advice