US M2 money supply (cash + checking + savings + money markets). When M2 grows rapidly, excess liquidity flows into risk assets. When M2 contracts, equity markets tend to follow with a 3–6 month lag.
M2 contraction was -$900B in 2022-2023 — the first YoY M2 decline since the 1930s — and corresponded with the worst bear market since 2008. Liquidity is the fuel for equity returns.
| Factor family | Liquidity |
| Relative weight | Supporting |
| Update cadence | Monthly |
| Modeled lead | ~12 weeks (a modeling assumption, not a validated finding) |
| Data source | FRED |
The lead time above is a design assumption, not an out-of-sample-validated relationship for a specific security or index. This is one Liquidity input among 47; it measures macro context, not a full investment thesis.
SPY · QQQ · GLD · BTC-USD · IWM · XLF
| Date | Score | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 78/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-05 | 78/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-04 | 78/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-03 | 78/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-02 | 78/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-01 | 78/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-08-31 | 79/100 | ▲ Bullish |
Unstructured Alpha weighs M2 Money Supply Growth alongside 46 other macro signals to build a Confluence Score for each stock. See how this signal is currently shaping the macro backdrop for the tickers you follow.
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Scores are derived from macro signals (FRED, EIA, SEC filings, FINRA short interest)
and updated as new data arrives. This is not financial advice. Past signal accuracy
does not guarantee future results.
unstructuredalpha.com · Not financial advice