Weekly initial unemployment claims. Acts as a real-time proxy for WARN Act mass layoff activity. Higher claims = bearish.
Companies file WARN notices 60 days before layoffs. Jobless claims are the downstream confirmation. Rising claims precede consumer spending contractions.
| Factor family | Labor |
| Relative weight | Core |
| Update cadence | Weekly |
| Modeled lead | ~4 weeks (a modeling assumption, not a validated finding) |
| Data source | FRED |
The lead time above is a design assumption, not an out-of-sample-validated relationship for a specific security or index. This is one Labor input among 47; it measures macro context, not a full investment thesis.
SPY · QQQ · XLY · IWM · XLP · HD · AMZN
| Date | Score | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 63/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-05 | 63/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-04 | 63/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-03 | 66/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-01 | 66/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-08-30 | 66/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-08-29 | 66/100 | ▲ Bullish |
Unstructured Alpha weighs Initial Jobless Claims (WARN Proxy) alongside 46 other macro signals to build a Confluence Score for each stock. See how this signal is currently shaping the macro backdrop for the tickers you follow.
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Scores are derived from macro signals (FRED, EIA, SEC filings, FINRA short interest)
and updated as new data arrives. This is not financial advice. Past signal accuracy
does not guarantee future results.
unstructuredalpha.com · Not financial advice