ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread. The credit market's forward-looking recession signal. Widening = financial stress. Rising spread = bearish for equities.
HY spreads widen when credit markets price in default risk. This transmission channel hits leveraged companies, banks, and growth stocks first — typically 4–8 weeks before equity repricing.
| Factor family | Credit |
| Relative weight | Core |
| Update cadence | Daily |
| Modeled lead | ~4 weeks (a modeling assumption, not a validated finding) |
| Data source | FRED |
The lead time above is a design assumption, not an out-of-sample-validated relationship for a specific security or index. This is one Credit input among 47; it measures macro context, not a full investment thesis.
SPY · XLF · HYG · JNK · TLT · KRE · LQD
| Date | Score | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 69/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-05 | 69/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-04 | 67/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-03 | 70/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-02 | 75/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-01 | 83/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-08-31 | 76/100 | ▲ Bullish |
Unstructured Alpha weighs High-Yield Credit Spread (ICE BofA) alongside 46 other macro signals to build a Confluence Score for each stock. See how this signal is currently shaping the macro backdrop for the tickers you follow.
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Scores are derived from macro signals (FRED, EIA, SEC filings, FINRA short interest)
and updated as new data arrives. This is not financial advice. Past signal accuracy
does not guarantee future results.
unstructuredalpha.com · Not financial advice