Ratio of COMEX copper futures (HG=F) to SPDR Gold ETF (GLD). Rising ratio = copper outperforming gold = growth optimism. Falling ratio = gold outperforming copper = risk-off/growth fear. Used by Gundlach and others as a leading indicator for 10Y Treasury yields and cyclical equity rotation.
Copper is the industrial metal most sensitive to global growth. Gold is the 'fear' metal. Their ratio strips out commodity-wide moves to isolate growth-vs-fear sentiment. Historically leads 10Y Treasury yields and cyclical-vs-defensive rotation by 4–8 weeks.
| Factor family | Inflation |
| Relative weight | Supporting |
| Update cadence | Daily |
| Modeled lead | ~4 weeks (a modeling assumption, not a validated finding) |
| Data source | YFINANCE_RATIO |
The lead time above is a design assumption, not an out-of-sample-validated relationship for a specific security or index. This is one Inflation input among 47; it measures macro context, not a full investment thesis.
SPY · IWM · XLF · XLI · FCX · SCCO · TLT
| Date | Score | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 47/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-05 | 42/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-04 | 36/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-03 | 39/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-02 | 46/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-09-01 | 39/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-08-31 | 36/100 | ● Neutral |
Unstructured Alpha weighs Copper/Gold Ratio alongside 46 other macro signals to build a Confluence Score for each stock. See how this signal is currently shaping the macro backdrop for the tickers you follow.
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Scores are derived from macro signals (FRED, EIA, SEC filings, FINRA short interest)
and updated as new data arrives. This is not financial advice. Past signal accuracy
does not guarantee future results.
unstructuredalpha.com · Not financial advice