Advance retail sales excluding autos and gas. The cleanest read on discretionary consumer spending health.
Retail sales ex-auto/gas = pure discretionary spending signal. When this accelerates, consumer stock revenues follow in the next 1–2 earnings quarters.
| Factor family | Consumer |
| Relative weight | Core |
| Update cadence | Monthly |
| Modeled lead | ~4 weeks (a modeling assumption, not a validated finding) |
| Data source | FRED |
The lead time above is a design assumption, not an out-of-sample-validated relationship for a specific security or index. This is one Consumer input among 47; it measures macro context, not a full investment thesis.
XLY · AMZN · WMT · TGT · COST · HD · LOW · KSS · M
| Date | Score | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 74/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-05 | 74/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-04 | 74/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-03 | 74/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-02 | 74/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-01 | 74/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-08-31 | 74/100 | ▲ Bullish |
Unstructured Alpha weighs Retail Sales ex. Auto & Gas alongside 46 other macro signals to build a Confluence Score for each stock. See how this signal is currently shaping the macro backdrop for the tickers you follow.
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Scores are derived from macro signals (FRED, EIA, SEC filings, FINRA short interest)
and updated as new data arrives. This is not financial advice. Past signal accuracy
does not guarantee future results.
unstructuredalpha.com · Not financial advice