The NY Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) — a composite of global shipping costs, manufacturing lead times, airfreight rates, and PMI backlogs, expressed as standard deviations from historical mean (0 = normal, +2 = severely stressed). INVERSE: higher = worse supply conditions = bearish for manufacturers and consumer goods companies. Data sourced directly from the NY Fed's published Excel file (federalreserve.gov-adjacent research). Goes back to 1997.
Supply chain stress propagates to corporate margins with a 4–8 week lag: constrained input availability forces production cuts or higher input costs, compressing earnings for manufacturers and retailers alike. The GSCPI's composite structure captures shipping bottlenecks (Drewry, Freightos), PMI supplier delivery delays (manufacturing backlogs), and airfreight rates — all of which precede reported earnings impact by one to two quarters.
| Factor family | Growth |
| Relative weight | Core |
| Update cadence | Monthly |
| Modeled lead | ~4 weeks (a modeling assumption, not a validated finding) |
| Data source | NY_FED_GSCPI |
The lead time above is a design assumption, not an out-of-sample-validated relationship for a specific security or index. This is one Growth input among 47; it measures macro context, not a full investment thesis.
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Unstructured Alpha weighs NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index alongside 46 other macro signals to build a Confluence Score for each stock. See how this signal is currently shaping the macro backdrop for the tickers you follow.
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Scores are derived from macro signals (FRED, EIA, SEC filings, FINRA short interest)
and updated as new data arrives. This is not financial advice. Past signal accuracy
does not guarantee future results.
unstructuredalpha.com · Not financial advice