Monthly new orders for manufactured capital goods excluding defense and aircraft (Census Bureau, FRED AMTMNO). Known as 'core capex orders' — the cleanest leading indicator for business investment spending. Rising orders signal expanding corporate capex intentions 2–3 months before the spending shows up in GDP. Bullish for industrials, equipment makers, and technology hardware when rising.

New orders represent firm purchase commitments — companies place equipment orders 2–3 months before delivery and payment. A rising trend in core capex orders reliably precedes stronger industrial production and equipment-maker revenues by 6–10 weeks. The ex-defense, ex-aircraft filter removes lumpy government contracts and Boeing order volatility to isolate genuine business investment demand.

The lead time above is a design assumption, not an out-of-sample-validated relationship for a specific security or index. This is one Growth input among 47; it measures macro context, not a full investment thesis.

CAT · DE · HON · ETN · EMR · ROK · ITW · PH · XLI · PCAR

Scores are derived from macro signals (FRED, EIA, SEC filings, FINRA short interest) and updated as new data arrives. This is not financial advice. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results.
unstructuredalpha.com · Not financial advice