Layoffs and discharges as % of total employment from BLS JOLTS. Higher rate = bearish for consumer stocks.
Rising layoff rate directly reduces consumer disposable income. Leads consumer spending data by 6–8 weeks.
| Factor family | Labor |
| Relative weight | Core |
| Update cadence | Monthly |
| Modeled lead | ~6 weeks (a modeling assumption, not a validated finding) |
| Data source | FRED |
The lead time above is a design assumption, not an out-of-sample-validated relationship for a specific security or index. This is one Labor input among 47; it measures macro context, not a full investment thesis.
XLY · XLP · HD · TGT · WMT · AMZN · COST · LOW
| Date | Score | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 70/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-05 | 70/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-04 | 70/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-03 | 70/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-02 | 70/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-01 | 51/100 | ● Neutral |
| 2026-08-31 | 51/100 | ● Neutral |
Unstructured Alpha weighs Layoffs & Discharges Rate (BLS JOLTS) alongside 46 other macro signals to build a Confluence Score for each stock. See how this signal is currently shaping the macro backdrop for the tickers you follow.
Open Signal Dashboard →
Scores are derived from macro signals (FRED, EIA, SEC filings, FINRA short interest)
and updated as new data arrives. This is not financial advice. Past signal accuracy
does not guarantee future results.
unstructuredalpha.com · Not financial advice