Macro & Liquidity Signal
Layoffs & Discharges Rate (BLS JOLTS)
Current Status
▲ Bullish
70/100
Updated 2026-09-06
About This Signal

Layoffs and discharges as % of total employment from BLS JOLTS. Higher rate = bearish for consumer stocks.

Why the model watches it

Rising layoff rate directly reduces consumer disposable income. Leads consumer spending data by 6–8 weeks.

How the model treats this signal
Factor familyLabor
Relative weightCore
Update cadenceMonthly
Modeled lead~6 weeks (a modeling assumption, not a validated finding)
Data sourceFRED
Known limitations

The lead time above is a design assumption, not an out-of-sample-validated relationship for a specific security or index. This is one Labor input among 47; it measures macro context, not a full investment thesis.

Relevant Tickers

XLY · XLP · HD · TGT · WMT · AMZN · COST · LOW

Recent History (30 days)
DateScoreStatus
2026-09-06 70/100 ▲ Bullish
2026-09-05 70/100 ▲ Bullish
2026-09-04 70/100 ▲ Bullish
2026-09-03 70/100 ▲ Bullish
2026-09-02 70/100 ▲ Bullish
2026-09-01 51/100 ● Neutral
2026-08-31 51/100 ● Neutral

Track This Signal in Real Time

Unstructured Alpha weighs Layoffs & Discharges Rate (BLS JOLTS) alongside 46 other macro signals to build a Confluence Score for each stock. See how this signal is currently shaping the macro backdrop for the tickers you follow.

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Scores are derived from macro signals (FRED, EIA, SEC filings, FINRA short interest) and updated as new data arrives. This is not financial advice. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results.
unstructuredalpha.com · Not financial advice