Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, General Activity Index. Above 0 = more manufacturers reporting expansion than contraction; below 0 = contraction. Used here in place of the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which the Institute for Supply Management pulled from FRED's free distribution in 2016.
Monthly survey of manufacturers in the Philadelphia Fed district (PA/NJ/DE) on new orders, shipments, employment, and general activity. Regional Fed manufacturing surveys (Philly, Richmond, Dallas, Kansas City) are watched as early reads ahead of the national ISM PMI release and lead industrial earnings by roughly the same window ISM PMI historically did.
| Factor family | Growth |
| Relative weight | Core |
| Update cadence | Monthly |
| Modeled lead | ~4 weeks (a modeling assumption, not a validated finding) |
| Data source | FRED |
The lead time above is a design assumption, not an out-of-sample-validated relationship for a specific security or index. This is one Growth input among 47; it measures macro context, not a full investment thesis.
XLI · CAT · DE · MMM · HON · ETN · EMR · ROK · ITW
| Date | Score | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 86/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-05 | 86/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-04 | 86/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-03 | 86/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-02 | 86/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-01 | 86/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-08-31 | 87/100 | ▲ Bullish |
Unstructured Alpha weighs Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (ISM PMI proxy) alongside 46 other macro signals to build a Confluence Score for each stock. See how this signal is currently shaping the macro backdrop for the tickers you follow.
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Scores are derived from macro signals (FRED, EIA, SEC filings, FINRA short interest)
and updated as new data arrives. This is not financial advice. Past signal accuracy
does not guarantee future results.
unstructuredalpha.com · Not financial advice