Monthly new housing starts. Leading indicator for homebuilder stocks, building materials, appliances, and mortgage lending.
Permits precede starts by 1–3 months. Starts precede home sales by 3–6 months. Material intensity: each new home requires ~13,000 board-ft of lumber, 400lbs of copper.
| Factor family | Housing |
| Relative weight | Core |
| Update cadence | Monthly |
| Modeled lead | ~12 weeks (a modeling assumption, not a validated finding) |
| Data source | FRED |
The lead time above is a design assumption, not an out-of-sample-validated relationship for a specific security or index. This is one Housing input among 47; it measures macro context, not a full investment thesis.
DHI · LEN · PHM · TOL · NVR · HD · LOW · MAS · LPX
| Date | Score | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 28/100 | ▼ Bearish |
| 2026-09-05 | 28/100 | ▼ Bearish |
| 2026-09-04 | 28/100 | ▼ Bearish |
| 2026-09-03 | 28/100 | ▼ Bearish |
| 2026-09-02 | 28/100 | ▼ Bearish |
| 2026-09-01 | 28/100 | ▼ Bearish |
| 2026-08-31 | 27/100 | ▼ Bearish |
Unstructured Alpha weighs Housing Starts (New Residential Construction) alongside 46 other macro signals to build a Confluence Score for each stock. See how this signal is currently shaping the macro backdrop for the tickers you follow.
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Scores are derived from macro signals (FRED, EIA, SEC filings, FINRA short interest)
and updated as new data arrives. This is not financial advice. Past signal accuracy
does not guarantee future results.
unstructuredalpha.com · Not financial advice