New factory orders for goods lasting 3+ years, excluding volatile defense orders. Tracks business investment intentions.
Capital goods orders (a subset) are the best gauge of business capex intentions. Leads industrial production by 2–3 quarters.
| Factor family | Growth |
| Relative weight | Supporting |
| Update cadence | Monthly |
| Modeled lead | ~8 weeks (a modeling assumption, not a validated finding) |
| Data source | FRED |
The lead time above is a design assumption, not an out-of-sample-validated relationship for a specific security or index. This is one Growth input among 47; it measures macro context, not a full investment thesis.
XLI · CAT · DE · HON · ETN · ROK · EMR · GE · PH
| Date | Score | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 71/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-05 | 71/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-04 | 71/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-03 | 71/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-02 | 71/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-09-01 | 71/100 | ▲ Bullish |
| 2026-08-31 | 72/100 | ▲ Bullish |
Unstructured Alpha weighs Durable Goods Orders ex. Defense alongside 46 other macro signals to build a Confluence Score for each stock. See how this signal is currently shaping the macro backdrop for the tickers you follow.
Open Signal Dashboard →
Scores are derived from macro signals (FRED, EIA, SEC filings, FINRA short interest)
and updated as new data arrives. This is not financial advice. Past signal accuracy
does not guarantee future results.
unstructuredalpha.com · Not financial advice