Quarterly delinquency rate on credit card loans across all commercial banks. INVERSE: rising delinquencies = consumer credit stress = bearish for card issuers and consumer discretionary names.
Delinquency rates are a coincident-to-slightly-leading read on consumer financial health — they tend to inflect before charge-off rates and issuer earnings guidance catch up, since issuers build loss reserves ahead of recognizing actual charge-offs.
| Factor family | Credit |
| Relative weight | Supporting |
| Update cadence | Quarterly |
| Modeled lead | ~4 weeks (a modeling assumption, not a validated finding) |
| Data source | FRED |
The lead time above is a design assumption, not an out-of-sample-validated relationship for a specific security or index. This is one Credit input among 47; it measures macro context, not a full investment thesis.
Unstructured Alpha weighs Credit Card Delinquency Rate (All Commercial Banks) alongside 46 other macro signals to build a Confluence Score for each stock. See how this signal is currently shaping the macro backdrop for the tickers you follow.
Open Signal Dashboard →
Scores are derived from macro signals (FRED, EIA, SEC filings, FINRA short interest)
and updated as new data arrives. This is not financial advice. Past signal accuracy
does not guarantee future results.
unstructuredalpha.com · Not financial advice